Category Archives: Economy

New York Economy Showing Signs of Rebound

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When 25-year-old entrepreneur Neil Hershman decided last year to open a flagship branch of Dippin’ Dots/Doc Popcorn in midtown Manhattan, he made the decision with a generous dose of nostalgia.

“I grew up like many others eating Dippin’ Dots exclusively at an amusement park or sports game,” Hershman told QSR Magazine, a journal covering the food service industry. “I wanted to bring that same experience to the millions of young adults and families traveling through Manhattan daily.”

Nostalgia aside, however, the decision to invest time and money in the city was a business call and a vote of confidence that the city’s economy will soon begin to bounce back from the downturn that accompanied the coronavirus last year.

The new store, which is scheduled to open in early April at 1 Madison Avenue, adjacent to Madison Square Park, is not the only indication that things are looking up for New York. The real estate sector, too, is showing more signs of vitality than it has in years.

“It is a reach to say the city’s property markets are roaring back,” the Financial Times reported in early March. “But the beast is certainly stirring. The first two months of 2021 have been the strongest opening to a year in Manhattan since 2015, the height of the market. February alone saw more new deals than any single month since May 2013.”

Even more significant, said the FT, is the fact that the economic growth appears to be led by wealthy New Yorkers eager to get back to museums, Broadway, sporting events, ballet performances and more.

“I’m optimistic on the eventual return of normalcy to New York City within the next 24 months,” concluded Neil Hershman.

2021 Paycheck Protection Program Opens With New Reqs

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The Biden administration has announced updated regulations for the Paycheck Protection Program in order to ensure funding reaches small business owners. The new regulations will limit loan applications under the program to businesses with fewer than 20 employees for the first two weeks of the new application period, which begins on February 24.

The new rules will also alter some eligibility requirements for applicants with felony records, outstanding student loans and uncertain citizenship status.

In a statement released by the White House, the administration said the revamped program is aimed at ensuring “equitable relief to hard-hit small businesses,” as well as rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse.  

Last year, the Small Business Administration and Trump administration officials came under criticism for approving loans to large corporations while blocking assistance to so-called “Main Street” businesses.

The PPP is part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a $2 trillion aid program ratified by Congress last March to provide relief to business owners who have suffered significant drops during the corona crisis.

CEOs Optimistic About Future of US Economy

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According to a survey by Business Roundtable CEOs are cautiously optimistic about the economy over the next months. On the question of when CEOs believe their businesses will get back to normal, this is what they said:

  • 26% said their business either did not suffer during the pandemic, or that they have already recovered, or that by the end of 2020 they expect everything to go back to pre-pandemic levels.
  • 41% said they expect their business to recover during 2021.
  • 33% expect recovery in 2022 or later

Optimism about the future is often reflected in the hiring levels of companies. Those levels are back to the average levels of 11.5 points. Another indicator is capital investment, which is above average at about 25.2 points. Sales expectations are above average at 29.9 points, and CEOs expect GDP growth to reach about 1.9%.

The CEOs also said that a relief package from Washington would help there businesses and the economy in general.

GDP Sets Record for Growth During Q3

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The annualized rate for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached a record of 33.1% during July, August, and September. The historic growth came immediately after one of the worst slumps in history, the second quarter’s annualized shrinkage of 33.4%.

The see-saw like behavior of the US economy can be accounted for by the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic, which forced a lockdown during the second quarter which shuttered many businesses, causing widespread job loss and business closures. In June stay-at-home orders lifted and the economy began to re-open, accounting for the rapid rebound of the economy in Q3.

Yet, even such a strong rebound has not resulted in a full recovery, which some analysts believe could take years, especially since the rate of GDP growth is expected to significantly slow down during Q4 of 2020.

Much of the growth is attributed to money set loose into the economy via the CARES Act, which distributed $2.2 trillion to every eligible American.

“Not only was the US economy enjoying the immediate bounce as a result of economic re-openings, but it was basking in significant fiscal stimulus support schemes,” said Seema Shah, the chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “Now, the path forward will inevitably be an uphill struggle.”

US Business Sees Fastest Growth Since February 2019

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According to IHS Markit’s business growth saw a significant uptick in October, the best its seen since February 2019.

The IHS Markit composite output index registered at 55.5, up from 54.3, the best number it has produced in almost 9 months. The index of service industry activity also gained from 54.6 to 56, and the purchasing manager’s index for the manufacturing sector rose from 53.2 to 53.3.

The index is a gauge of month-over-month changes in activity, not a summary of overall output. A reading of 50 indicates no change in business activity, while anything above 50 is a positive change and numbers below 50 indicate an economic contraction.

Chris Williamson, HIS Markit chief business economist said that last week’s report indicates that the US economy “started the fourth quarter on a strong footing.”

Markit is almost unique in showing a V-shaped economic bounce-back due to the trend being fueled by the rebound in output. Most of the other indices of business activity indicate that economic output still remains significantly under the pre-pandemic levels.