Tag Archives: inflation

Gold to Make a Comeback, Analysts Predict

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As a hedge against inflation, gold

Native gold from Nevada, USA. (3.7 ounces). Courtesy of James St. John

gleams. But the stronger the dollar, the lower the price of gold tends to fall.

According to Bart Melek, the global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, investors and observers can expect to see the price of gold to climb as the dollar continues to weaken.

Since April 11, 2018 gold bullion lost about 5% in value, due to a surging dollar. Despite confusion in Italy and other uncertainties around the world, gold was selling for under $1300. Melek is predicting a surge in the price during the final quarter of 2018 to an average of $1375 an ounce, and could possibly hit a high price of $1400.

“As time moves on, there’ll be less and less reasons to get into the U.S. dollar, which will likely reverse some of the flows,” said Melek, a speaker at a precious metals conference in Singapore. “We do ultimately think that as we move into 2019, the U.S. dollar will weaken, which is a very powerful fuel for the gold complex.”

The outlook for the very near future is less optimistic for gold, whcich Melek does not believe will rise given the dollars continued strengthening. In addtion, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates two more times this year. Prices for gold will most likely average at about $1290 in the third quarter, and $1300 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Inflation-Plagued Venezuela to Print Larger Denomination Bills

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Aerial view of Caracas from Plaza Venezuela.
Aerial view of Caracas from Plaza Venezuela. Photo by Paulino Moran

 

With inflation at 181 percent, Venezuela has the highest inflation in the world. A top finance official in the government said that due to the runaway inflation, Venezuela will be force to print paper money of larger denominations. Right now the country’s largest bill has a value of only ten cents.

The first confirmation that Venezuela will be issuing larger notes came from Central Bank President Nelson Merentes in an interview with the Associated Press. Rumors have been circulating for months that Venezuela was planning such a step.

Market economists believe that larger bills will only quicken the already nightmarishly skyrocketing inflation, make it more difficult to bring under control.

Merentes, disagreeing with that assessment, said the new money will reduce panic in the public, reducing price pressures since “you’re going to have less bills circulating.”

This is a big project that will take us to a monetary system more in line with the Venezuelan situation,” Merentes said.

Federal Reserve to Refrain from More Bond Buying

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Two influential officials from the Federal Reserve announced on Friday that the central bank should wait before buying more bonds. In addition to cutting overnight interest rates down to nothing in December of 2008, the Federal Reserve also purchased $2.3 trillion worth of government and mortgage-related bonds to stimulate growth in response to the worst recession in dozens of years.

Economy Improving, Bond Buying Not Needed

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis, James Bullard told reporters after

James Bullard

a speech he gave in this Midwestern city that as long as the economy seems to be improving, the purchasing of more bonds should be postponed.

“The data has been stronger in recent weeks and months, and so I think there’s probably a good case to stand pat for now,” Bullard said.

“If the economy did deteriorate substantially in 2012, then I think (quantitative easing) would come back on the table, but that’s not where we are right now,” added Bullard, considered a centrist when it comes to policy debated by the Federal Reserve.

Upcoming Policy Meeting

The large variety of positions when it comes to Fed policy was apparent as the officials practiced their differing arguments in preparation for their upcoming policy meeting on January 24-25.

The aftermath of the meeting is expected to result in the announcement of more information about the direction interest rates will take in the near future, as well as an explicit number for an inflation target. It is not expected, however that the Feds will announce any new round of bond purchases.

Bond Buying on Hold, For Now

Some other Federal Reserve officials, including the influential president of the New York Fed, have hinted recently that additional bond buys might need to be considered sometime in the future, but for now Bullard’s position is probably the one which will be followed for now.