Tag Archives: Russia

NABE Survey Sees Trouble Looming in China

Economy, , , , ,
China economy boom or bust?
China economy boom or bust?

According to a new survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, a bit beyond half of US business economists believe that China marching towards a serious debt crisis in the next few years.

When asked whether they agreed that “China will face a debt crisis within the next few years,” 52 percent said yes, 25 percent said no, and 23 percent were undecided.

“The biggest concern that has been in discussion is the housing boom and bust in China,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NABE’s president and chief economist at the National Retail Federation. “I think it’s just an overexpansion like we’ve seen in other housing bubbles that have occurred, here in the United States and elsewhere.”

Problems brewing in the Chinese economy include a weakening housing market, expanding debt on the local government level, and a squeezing of supervision of shadow-banking services.

Not all agree with US economists however. Changyong Rhee of the International Monetary Fund said in April that he does not see a full-blown financial crisis for China on the horizon. Kleinhenz added that even if there were a housing bust in China it “shouldn’t have an impact globally” like the housing crisis in the US did. That housing crash helped ignite the 2008 global financial crisis.

The NABE survey was given to 47 member of NABE and was conducted from May 8-21. The economists were also asked about European economics. The vast majority, 84 percent, said that they believe the problems facing Russia and Ukraine “will hinder the economic recovery in Europe.” Whether the crisis will impact the US, however, only 34 percent think it will.

White House Officials Worried About Russian Stealth

News, , ,
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin

A US official told the Wall Street Journal of the White House concern that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was able to hide his intentions towards Crimea from the National Security Agency.

The official said that the Obama administration is “very nervous” about Russia’s successful subterfuge; taking over Crimea and bringing troops to the Ukrainian border and hiding it from US eavesdropping equipment. “This is unchartered territory,” he said.

According to the WSJ US officials are in the dark about how Russia was able to hide its plans from the NSA, which spies on digital and electronic communications.

Apparently, says the Journal, Russian leaders either “deliberately avoided communicating about the invasion or simply found a way to do so without detection by the U.S.”
Another worry for US deterrence is whether this new secrecy is part of a wider trend in which Russia can act without US foreknowledge.

“All military combat operations depend on NSA contributions,” said former assistant command security manager in the US Navy, and consultant Robert Caruso during a discussion about documents potentially accessed by Edward Snowden. “[The Department of Defense] depends on NSA and the Defense Information Systems Agency to secure all its networks and others networks too.”